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Section 7
CONCLUSION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Annuities were a small share of the U.S. insurance market until the 1930s, when two developments contributed to their growth. Flexible-payment deferred annuities, which include a saving component as well as an insurance component, expanded rapidly as concerns about the stability of the financial system drove investors to products offered by long-standing and reputable insurance companies. In addition, the group annuity market for corporate pension plans began to develop in the 1930s; it became the largest part of the U.S. annuity market in the years following World War II. The market for individual annuities expanded in the 1970s and early 1980s. The most recent development in the annuity marketplace was the expansion of variable annuities in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These products, which combine the investment features of many mutual funds with certain insurance elements and which qualify for the tax deferral accorded to investment income on life insurance products, have attracted a substantial and growing volume of premiums in recent years.

The Gallup (1996) survey data show that more than three-quarters of nonqualified annuity owners are at least 55 years old. Growing attention to these products is suggested by the aging of the U.S. population: the proportion of the U.S. population over the age of 65 has grown from 6.8 percent in 1940 to 11.3 percent in 1980, and is projected at 12.2 percent in 2000 and 16.2 percent in 2020. A central issue for the future is how prospective changes in federal programs that affect the well-being of the elderly, notably Medicare and Social Security, will alter private financial arrangements. Whether potential reductions in these "annuitized" benefit streams will lead to increased private demand for annuity contracts remains an open issue.

A second unresolved policy issue concerns fundamental tax reform and the demand for annuity products. At least part of the demand for these products stems from the opportunity to defer tax on capital income during the accumulation phase of these policies. A shift toward consumption taxation or a general reduction in marginal income tax rates would therefore reduce the demand for these products.

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